ALL-TIME HIGHS?
August 16, 2020
I was on a holiday last week and while I had good intentions, I never got the Report completed. It seems that working on a laptop is not as efficient as my office setup.
Bitcoin and the shitcoins are on the move. There are some great opportunities there.
I am on a bit of a tour of western Canada this summer being in BC a few weeks ago and northern Saskatchewan this week. It is a beautiful diverse region and I am very lucky that my ancestors chose this part of the world.
A number of markets and charts are closing in on all-time highs. The next couple of weeks will be interesting to see if the S&P500, TSX, Russell 2000 will find resistance or behave like the Nasdaq and create new highs.
This market seems disconnected from the economy and has surprised a number of pundits. This reinforces my belief that only price matters, opinions do not.
I recently began an Introduction to Trading and Investing Workshop that will provide you with the tools and confidence to take control of your investments.
I believe that this workshop will be of great benefit to both new traders and veteran investors. You can sign up on my website with this link: Trading and Investing Workshop.
If no dates are available, reach out to me.
Our free Telegram channel, Klarenbach Research, is growing in numbers and the members are getting more comfortable with asking questions regarding traditional markets and Bitcoin.
We post entries, stops and exits in order that members can learn how to identify low-risk high probability trades.
Some of our members are catching on really quickly and are experiencing success in their trading accounts.
This is where the majority of the ideas are posted. Talk to someone who is in the Channel and ask them how the results have been.
This is the link https://t.me/klarenbachresearch.
I hope you check it out.
We have had good success with our Trade Ideas and the ideas posted on our Telegram Channel.
I have included the Trade Results Summary.
The number of trades is becoming too lengthy for this publication.
As you can see, finding Investor Class Ideas has proven difficult with more success with Swing Trade Ideas and the Telegram channel.
The expectancy of the Telegram Channels is 5.75% for a 17-day hold.
Extrapolated out to a 30-day month and the result is a 10.2% monthly gain.
The Telegram Channel is outperforming the market indices by a larger margin.
I adopted components of Van Tharp’s System Evaluation which I believe is more effective for system evaluation than win rates and % gains.
MARKET REVIEW
**Click on any chart to enlarge**
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
The S&P 500 is about to test new highs. If the price sets a new ATH, then 4000 can be expected. This is bullish.
I am very close to sticking a fork in my ABC Correction idea.
NASDAQ 100 INDEX (NDX)
The Nasdaq has been a monster with a target of 11568 next. This is incredible.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
The DJIA continues moving higher. There is a gap to fill at 28892 and I see no reason why that won’t get filled.
ISHARES TRUST RUSSELL 2000 ETF (IWM)
The Russell 2000 keeps moving upwards also. I find this confluence of the yellow trendline and the gap to be filled at 166.33. I see no reason why that gap won’t get filled and then a new ATH could happen.
TSX Composite Index (TSX)
The TSX also has an interesting confluence of the yellow trendline and the reg gap at 17041.
S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)
The VIX is below the 200 DMA and appears as if it has further to drop. This likely means higher prices in the S&P 500. I find it interesting that the closing price on the gap-fill candle is at the .887 fib level and the 200 Week Moving Average.
West Texas Oil (WTIC)
WTI is above the 200 DMA. A very effective strategy is to buy on a close of a full candle above the 200 DMA with a stop on a candle close below the 200 DMA. Preferably an advancing 200 DMA, but nonetheless.
GOLD Spot (XAUUSD)
As anticipated two weeks ago, Gold is taking a break after a powerful move. If anyone can explain to me why gold is so revered, please let me know.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
USDCAD is below the 200 DMA. The 50 DMA is below the 200 DMA. Both of these suggest further weakness. Oh, Canada!
US Dollar Currency Index (DXY)
The USD continues to look weak against this basket of currencies. Price is below the 200 Week MA and below this trend line from 2011. This is bearish.
BITCOIN (BTC)
OMG Bitcoin looks bullish. You won’t have to explain to me why BTC is sound money and more valuable than Gold.
WHEAT FUTURES (ZW1!)
Price pulled back from the recent move, however, it is still above a rising 200 Week Moving Average. I think this looks really promising for farmers.
SOYBEAN FUTURES (ZS1!)
I adjusted my trendline using the log chart. Here it is. Obviously, price needs to break this trendline.
CANOLA NOV ’20 FUTURES (RSX20)
The Weekly chart of Canola. A rising 30-, 40- and 50- week Moving Average is promising. Price is battling the 200 Week MA. This looks like more consolidation towards the apex of these trendlines.
TLT vs SPY RATIO
(ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF vs SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
The TLT/SPY ratio is declining to suggest higher prices in the S&P 500.
FACEBOOK (FB: NASDAQ)
Zuckerberg is winning. No signs of stopping Facebook.
AMAZON (AMZN: NASDAQ)
While Main Street got destroyed, Amazon capitalized.
APPLE (AAPL: NASDAQ)
What happens after the stock split? Tim Apple is kicking ass.
NETFLIX (NFLX: NASDAQ)
I am a big fan of Netflix and it appears like I am not the only one.
ALPHABET (GOOG: NASDAQ)
GOOG is poised to move higher.
INVESTOR CLASS IDEAS
The New Investor Class opportunities remain pretty thin as a number of my preferred setups will report earnings in the next week or two. They may make for a swing trade, however, it would be irresponsible of me to post an Investor Class Idea that reports within two weeks.
I will post in the Telegram Channel as Trade Ideas develop and are identified during the week.
Here is the link: https://t.me/klarenbachresearch
REMEMBER, CASH IS A POSITION
Don’t FOMO into a position. Have a plan.
Here are the results of our Investor Class Ideas.
YAMANA GOLD (AUY: NYSE)
I got nervous with the Gold chart and got stopped out at 5.81 for +8.6% +.65R in 43 days. We had a higher-stop in the Telegram Channel trade and did considerably better. I will look for re-entry.
VANECK VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF (GDXJ: NYSE)
Again, I got nervous with the price of gold and raised my stop to 56.73. We got stopped out for +18.25% +1.54R in 44 days.
SWITCH INC (SWCH : NASDAQ)
SWCH made a move above our entry, however, it was in the first 30 minutes of the market and I don’t place orders in that time period so it did not trigger. SWCH is off the list.
CGEN (COMPUGEN : NASDAQ)
CGEN made a move and is currently up 7.37%. Our stop has been raised to 15.94.
NUAN (NUAN : NASDAQ)
I raised my stop and got stopped out at 28.67 for +11.82% +1.92R in 23 days.
SPS COMMERCE (SPSC : NASDAQ)
It took a while but SPSC did trigger. Our stop is raised to breakeven at 75.39.
MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS (MMSI : NASDAQ)
MMSI is consolidating nicely above the 20- and 50- day moving averages. The 200 DMA is also rising. There is a gap to fill at $53. I am interested above 46.64 with a stop under 41.33.
NANOSTRING TECHNOLOGIES (NSTG : NASDAQ)
NSTG broke out of the consolidation to an ATH before pulling back below the breakout level. I think this consolidation above the rising 20-, 50- and 200- DMA looks promising. I am interested above 38.33 with a stop below 32.71.
SWING TRADE IDEAS
Swing trades will be posted as they are identified in the Klarenbach Research Telegram Channel.
We have been active in the Telegram Channel and the results have been impressive.
Here is the link: https://t.me/klarenbachresearch
That is all for now!
Drop me a line with any questions or comments. You can do that here
I am actively posting charts and ideas on social media.
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Twitter: @trentklarenbach
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